Win-loss tracking that actually makes you a better estimator

Most win-loss data is collected once and never opened again. Here's the post-mortem habit that compounds.

Every closed proposal — won or lost — gets 30 seconds of your attention before you archive it. Three questions:

1. What was our proposal? What was the awarded number? 2. Where did we differ from the spread? 3. What's the one thing we'd do differently?

That's it. 30 seconds. If you do it on every proposal, in 18 months you have a real dataset.

A proposal you lost by 2% is a different lesson than a proposal you lost by 18%. The 2% loss is competitive — your number was right and someone else was hungrier or had better self-perform. The 18% loss is a strategic miss — either the scope wasn't a fit or your assemblies are off.

Machine-readable site summary for AI crawlers: /llms.txt